An Alternative History of the VFL/AFL

Preludes to Nothing

The boy’s hard at the ball at the ‘G

The Long Game – Season 2024

21 Jun 2025

Copied straight out of Wikipedia, here below is the Top 8 at the end of the Home and Away Series in Real Time 2024. Sydney's on top, Carlton's in 8th, and Collingwood is nowhere to be seen.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	PP
1	Sydney	23	68	126.7
2	Port Adelaide	23	64	114.8
3	Geelong	23	60	112.2
4	Greater Western Sydney	23	60	109.1
5	Brisbane Lions	23	58	121.9
6	Western Bulldogs	23	56	125.1
7	Hawthorn	23	56	118.5
8	Carlton	23	52	110.2

All right then. Now if you know your VFL/AFL, you'll know that there is something wrong with what we are looking at here. What you might call a bad thing. Being what we're looking at in the column marked "Pld", in the table above. It reads 23, all the way down! And it should read 34, all the way down. Because we've got 18 teams in the AFL, and each team should be playing each of the other 17 teams twice, and 17 x 2 = 34.

Enter ... The Long Game. Which says no, not happy with that. Season 2024 ain't over till it's over. In The Long Game, the Home and Aways Series for 2024 ain't over until every team has played every other team twice. Let's go.

First, here below are the results from the first week of the finals in Real Time 2024. Again, straight off Wikipedia.

1	Sydney	13.10 (88)
4	Greater Western Sydney	12.10 (82)
5	Brisbane Lions	14.15 (99)
8	Carlton	11.5 (71)
6	Western Bulldogs	9.8 (62)
7	Hawthorn	14.15 (99)
2	Port Adelaide	7.12 (54)
3	Geelong	20.18 (138)

And now, without further ado, here's how The Long Game works. In The Long Game, those games you can see there above are 'not' finals games. They are home and away games. In The Long Game, the 2024 Home and Away Series is still going.

And here below is The Long Game Ladder for 2024 after the first week of the Real Time 2024 Finals Series.

Team	Played	Points	%
Sth Melb / Sydney	23	68	126.74%
Geelong	24	64	116.15%
Port Adelaide	24	64	109.26%
Fitzroy / Brisbane	24	62	122.61%
Hawthorn	24	60	119.95%
Greater Western Sydney	23	60	109.12%
Footscray / Bulldogs	24	56	121.69%
Carlton	24	52	108.34%

(For the record, Geelong thrashed Port in their qualifying final in Real Time 2024, played on 5 Sep 2024 at the Adelaide Oval. And you can see above that because of this, Geelong and Port have swapped positions: Port's dropped down to third.)

Still with us? If so, here below is The Long Game Ladder for 2024 after the entire Real Time 2024 Finals Series is done and dusted.

Team	Played	Points	%
Sth Melb / Sydney	25	72	123.05%
Fitzroy / Brisbane	26	70	124.50%
Port Adelaide	26	68	106.90%
Geelong	25	64	114.93%
Hawthorn	25	60	119.00%
Greater Western Sydney	23	60	109.12%
Footscray / Bulldogs	24	56	121.69%
Carlton	24	52	108.34%

(Brisbane up into second spot! Well, Brisbane did win the flag, after all, in real time.)

Exciting, isn't it! Well, maybe not. But seriously, what were you doing right now, just before you came here?

OK, so that's that. But we've still got a problem. Check out the column marked "Played", in the table above. And yep, that's right. Season 2024 in The Long Game is still nowhere near over. We are looking for "34" in the column marked "Played" all the way down. And right now, we get a lucky break. Because in real time, the footy didn't stop, after the Grand Final was played at the end of 2024. It kept going, the minute the Real Time 2025 Season cranked up. And as I mentioned earlier, in The Long Game, 2024 ain't over, until it's over.

And here below is The Long Game Ladder for 2024 as it stands right now, as I sit here typing, at 1:10 PM on 21 Jun 2025, in Max's, on a lovely sunny winter's day. 

Team	Played	Points	%
Fitzroy / Brisbane	32	92	124.71%
Geelong	32	88	123.06%
Sth Melb / Sydney	31	84	118.96%
Greater Western Sydney	32	84	110.86%
Hawthorn	32	80	119.24%
Port Adelaide	31	76	98.97%
Footscray / Bulldogs	31	72	126.50%
Collingwood	30	72	106.45%

(Carlton's dropped out the 8, and Collingwood's in! Which makes sense. Carlton's having a dog of a  season so far, in Real Time 2025, and Collingwood's on top of the ladder.) 

And that's all I've got, for now. I'll check back in, in a few weeks, to see how The Long Game Ladder for 2024 is going by then. And report back. But not here, in this section, which if you didn't notice is called The Long Game – Season 2024. Instead, scroll, scroll, scroll down. Down to a follow-up section called The Long Game – Season 2024 (Continued).

In the meantime, however! ... I've data crunched The Long Game for the entire history of the VFL/AFL, since 1897. See what you think, below.

The Long Game – The 1890s (Geelong, 2 Flags)

31 May 2025

If you've figured out what I've done in the previous section, you might want to know how the 1890s shake out, if you re-run the 1890s except this time, once again, you make sure every team plays each other twice before the finals are played.

And they shake out as shown below. (I'm displaying the Grand Finals only. Displaying the ladder at the end of Home and Away Season and the entire Finals Series for each year would be Too Much Information.)

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1897*	Geelong	31	Essendon	24
1898	Fitzroy / Brisbane	22	Collingwood	11
1899	Geelong	57	Fitzroy / Brisbane	12

*You may recall that in the VFL in real time, Essendon was awarded the inaugural flag after a round-robin finals series. But here in The Long Game, between 1897 and 1971, we play a standard finals series between the top four teams the way those were played in almost all seasons in real time between 1897 and 1971.

The Long Game – The 1900s (Carlton, 4 Flags)

31 May 2025

Same again, except for the 1900s.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1900	Geelong	44	Collingwood	31
1901	Essendon	43	Collingwood	16
1902	Collingwood	33	Essendon	25
1903	Collingwood	42	Fitzroy / Brisbane	33
1904	Fitzroy / Brisbane	61	Collingwood	50
1905	Fitzroy / Brisbane	80	Essendon	37
1906	Carlton	77	Fitzroy / Brisbane	25
1907	Carlton	91	St Kilda	35
1908	Carlton	50	Essendon	33
1909	Carlton	92	Essendon	56

 

The Long Game – The 1910s (Carlton, 3 Flags)

31 May 2025

South Melbourne runners-up three years in a row from 1912 to 1914, I see. That’s stiff. But you can be stiff in The Long Game too. Even though it’s a fairer measure of Who’s Best, I think, than is the Real-time AFL in the modern era of rigged seasons, at least.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1910	Collingwood	55	Sth Melb / Sydney	44
1911	Essendon	41	Collingwood	35
1912	Carlton	80	Sth Melb / Sydney	60
1913	St Kilda	84	Sth Melb / Sydney	51
1914	Carlton	45	Sth Melb / Sydney	39
1915	Carlton	54	Fitzroy / Brisbane	38
1916	Carlton	91	Richmond	41
1917	Collingwood	65	Carlton	30
1918	Sth Melb / Sydney	58	Carlton	53
1919	Richmond	74	Collingwood	45

 

The Long Game – The 1920s (Collingwood, 3 Flags)

31 May 2025

Something statistically bizarre happens in the 1920s. I could have run this app I’ve written to process The Long Game for a thousand years of real-time VFL/AFL games easily not see this happen.

Time to explain. A certain game played once upon a time in the real-time 1920s has ended up being The Long Game Grand Final for both 1927 'and' 1928. Now, emotionally this makes no sense, unless you’re a Pies fan. And yet, stats-wise, it DOES make sense, albeit in an unlikely way verging on the ridiculous. But not impossible. Because in real time, Collingwood and Melbourne played each other only once in 1927 and three times in 1928. And of the three times they played in 1928, one was an uncannily well-placed draw.

I’ll leave it at that. It was possible, and it happened.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1920	Richmond	52	Collingwood	35
1921	Richmond	36	Carlton	32
1922	Fitzroy / Brisbane	68	Essendon	45
1923	Fitzroy / Brisbane	68	Essendon	61
1924	Essendon	65	Sth Melb / Sydney	57
1925	Geelong	79	Collingwood	69
1926	Collingwood	65	Geelong	49
1927	Collingwood	68	Melbourne	64
1928	Collingwood	68	Melbourne	64
1929	Richmond	123	Collingwood	61

 

The Long Game – The 1930s (Collingwood, 4 Flags)

31 May 2025

South Melbourne once again stiff, I see. This time between 1933 and 1936.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1930	Collingwood	135	Carlton	74
1931	Geelong	68	Richmond	48
1932	Richmond	92	Carlton	83
1933	Richmond	108	Sth Melb / Sydney	64
1934	Sth Melb / Sydney	105	Richmond	59
1935	Collingwood	78	Sth Melb / Sydney	58
1936	Collingwood	140	Sth Melb / Sydney	85
1937	Collingwood	95	Geelong	90
1938	Collingwood	123	Carlton	84
1939	Melbourne	122	Richmond	99

 

The Long Game – The 1940s (Essendon, 3 Flags)

31 May 2025

 

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1940	Richmond	84	Carlton	83
1941	Essendon	135	Richmond	81
1942	Essendon	97	Richmond	84
1943	Richmond	97	Fitzroy / Brisbane	51
1944	Fitzroy / Brisbane	66	Richmond	51
1945	Carlton	117	Sth Melb / Sydney	109
1946	Essendon	85	Melbourne	75
1947	Carlton	86	Essendon	85
1948	Melbourne	89	Essendon	50
1949	North Melbourne	86	Essendon	71

 

The Long Game – The 1950s (Melbourne, 5 Flags)

31 May 2025

Collingwood stiff. Runners-up five years out of ten.

 

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1950	Essendon	92	North Melbourne	54
1951	Geelong	62	Collingwood	33
1952	Geelong	98	Collingwood	73
1953	Collingwood	77	Geelong	65
1954	Melbourne	111	Geelong	62
1955	Melbourne	64	Collingwood	36
1956	Melbourne	121	Collingwood	48
1957	Melbourne	78	Collingwood	33
1958	Melbourne	99	North Melbourne	44
1959	Essendon	78	Melbourne	65

 

The Long Game – The 1960s (Essendon, 3 Flags)

31 May 2025

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1960	Essendon	87	Melbourne	78
1961	Hawthorn	69	Essendon	52
1962	Essendon	90	Carlton	58
1963	Geelong	109	Hawthorn	60
1964	Melbourne	64	Collingwood	60
1965	Essendon	105	St Kilda	70
1966	Richmond	85	St Kilda	53
1967	Richmond	118	Carlton	72
1968	Carlton	56	Essendon	53
1969	Carlton	210	Hawthorn	82

 

The Long Game – The 1970s (Hawthorn, 4 Flags)

31 May 2025

Remember above, in the 1890s, when I mentioned that between 1897 and 1971 in The Long Game, we play the finals as a Final 4? Well, in The Long Game, as it was in the VFL in real time, we switch to a Final 5, from 1972 to 1990. And we play that Final 5 in the standard way a final series was played in real-time between 1972 and 1990.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1970	Hawthorn	96	Carlton	36
1971	Hawthorn	82	St Kilda	75
1972	Carlton	177	Richmond	150
1973	Richmond	116	Carlton	86
1974	Richmond	128	North Melbourne	87
1975	North Melbourne	122	Hawthorn	67
1976	Hawthorn	100	North Melbourne	70
1977	North Melbourne	151	Collingwood	124
1978	Hawthorn	121	North Melbourne	103
1979	Carlton	82	Collingwood	77

 

Peter Knights

The Long Game – The 1980s (Hawthorn, 3 Flags)

31 May 2025

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1980	Richmond	159	Collingwood	78
1981	Carlton	92	Collingwood	72
1982	Carlton	103	Richmond	85
1983	Hawthorn	140	Essendon	57
1984	Essendon	105	Hawthorn	81
1985	Essendon	170	Hawthorn	92
1986	Hawthorn	110	Carlton	68
1987	Melbourne	96	Carlton	66
1988	Hawthorn	135	Essendon	91
1989	Melbourne	116	Hawthorn	104

 

The Long Game – The 1990s (Essendon & Geelong, 3 Flags Each)

31 May 2025

In The Long Game, Brisbane Bears is a standalone team from 1986 to 1996 and Fitzroy becomes the Brisbane Lions in 1997. Brisbane Bears games in 1996 are excluded from The Long Game, because in 1996, Brisbane Bears failed to play every other team twice. Put another way, from 1996 onwards, Brisbane Bears played too few games to complete a full The Long Game1996 Home and Away Series.

Also, remember above, in the 1970s, when I mentioned that a proper The Long Game Finals Series is one in which the top five teams play a finals series the standard way those were played between 1972 and 1990? Well, in The Long Game, as it was in the VFL in real time, we switch to a Final Six, come 1991 and then a Final 8, come 1994. And we will be playing those the standard way final series have been played in real-time since 1991.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
1990	West Coast	115	Essendon	52
1991	Hawthorn	152	St Kilda	74
1992	Geelong	124	Collingwood	96
1993	Essendon	133	Carlton	89
1994	Geelong	105	Carlton	72
1995	Geelong	98	Carlton	86
1996	North Melbourne	83	Essendon	64
1997	North Melbourne	105	Adelaide	92
1998	Essendon	80	Footscray / Bulldogs	76
1999	Essendon	165	Hawthorn	82

 

The Long Game – The 2000s (Brisbane, 3 Flags)

31 May 2025

That three-peat I see there by Brisbane mirrors what happened in real time. Fair enough too. What with all those draft picks.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
2000	Essendon	122	Hawthorn	57
2001	Fitzroy / Brisbane	129	Port Adelaide	72
2002	Fitzroy / Brisbane	138	Port Adelaide	82
2003	Fitzroy / Brisbane	100	Sth Melb / Sydney	56
2004	West Coast	84	St Kilda	66
2005	West Coast	93	Adelaide	77
2006	Geelong	182	West Coast	47
2007	Hawthorn	115	Geelong	89
2008	Geelong	80	St Kilda	68
2009	St Kilda	70	Geelong	46

 

The Long Game – The 2010s (Sydney, 2 Flags)

31 May 2025

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
2010	Collingwood	120	Geelong	79
2011	Sth Melb / Sydney	106	Hawthorn	69
2012	North Melbourne	91	Sth Melb / Sydney	48
2013	Sth Melb / Sydney	107	Hawthorn	88
2014	Hawthorn	94	Fremantle	67
2015	Footscray / Bulldogs	89	Sth Melb / Sydney	67
2016	Geelong	103	Greater Western Sydney	59
2017	Greater Western Sydney	79	Richmond	77
2018	West Coast	98	Collingwood	76
2019	Fitzroy / Brisbane	85	Port Adelaide	48

 

The Long Game – The 2020s So Far (Melbourne, 2 Flags)

31 May 2025

A decade in progress.

Era	Premier	Score	Runner Up	Score
2020	Melbourne	81	Geelong	77
2021	Melbourne	125	Geelong	42
2022	Fitzroy / Brisbane	124	Collingwood	100
2023	Sth Melb / Sydney	89	Collingwood	86
2024	Season incomplete*	-	Season incomplete*	-
2025	Season incomplete*	-	Season incomplete*	-
2026	Season yet to commence*	-	Season yet to commence*	-
2027	Season yet to commence*	-	Season yet to commence*	-
2028	Season yet to commence*	-	Season yet to commence*	-
2029	Season yet to commence*	-	Season yet to commence*	-

 *Make your way to the end of this document. Or if you're reading, scroll down. Who knows? Depending on when you're reading this, one or more of these seasons in The Long Game may well now be complete. If so, I will have reported in. But not here. Further below.

Some Stats

31 May 2025

See what you make of the table below. The first column simply totals the results of all the Grand Finals is all the tables shown decade-by-decade above. I'll explain what the second and third columns are all about further below, but you can probably half guess already, from the columns headings.

 

Team	Total Flags (Raw)	Total Flags (Weighted)	Total Flags (Apples with Apples)
West Coast	4	5	14
Essendon	17	17	13
Geelong	14	14	12
Hawthorn	11	12	12
Greater Western Sydney	1	1	12
Carlton	16	13	10
Melbourne	12	13	10
Collingwood	14	12	10
Richmond	13	12	10
Fitzroy / Brisbane	11	11	9
North Melbourne	6	7	7
Sth Melb / Sydney	5	6	5
St Kilda	2	2	2
Footscray / Bulldogs	1	1	1
Adelaide	0	0	0
Fremantle	0	0	0
Gold Coast	0	0	0
Port Adelaide	0	0	0

 

OK, continuing on. The SECOND column is the number of EFFECTIVE (weighted*) flags each team has won.

*To weight flags, we consider how many teams a flag-winner defeats to win that flag. And to do that, we define a “full” flag as one you win against 17 other teams. To illustrate, Collingwood won The Long Game Flag in 2018 and defeated 17 other teams to do so. So, that The Long Game Flag is worth 1 / 17 x 17 =1. But The Long Game Flags Collingwood won before 1908, which were won against only 7 other teams, are worth only 1 / 17 x 7 = 0.4. And The Long Game Flag they won in 1917, which because of the war was against only 5 other teams, is worth only 1 / 17 x 5 = 0.3.

But wait! Even this second column is not very fair, in terms of which team is the GOAT. Because GWS, for example, won its single flag in the table above inside a single decade and Essendon, for example, has taken more than 120 seasons to win its 17 flags.

So, we need to go a step further in the weighting game. We need to further weight each team’s flags against the number of seasons that each team has played.

Voila, Column 3.

North finds itself everywhere except on John Coleman

The Long Game – Season 2024 (Continued)

21 Jun 2025

Right. Where were we, right at the top of this document? And yes, we were here, having a look at The Long Game Ladder for 2024 as it stood at 1:10 PM on 21 Jun 2025, in Max's, on a lovely sunny winter's day. As shown below.

Team	Played	Points	%
Fitzroy / Brisbane	32	92	124.71%
Geelong	32	88	123.06%
Sth Melb / Sydney	31	84	118.96%
Greater Western Sydney	32	84	110.86%
Hawthorn	32	80	119.24%
Port Adelaide	31	76	98.97%
Footscray / Bulldogs	31	72	126.50%
Collingwood	30	72	106.45%

Stay tuned! I'll wait a few weeks, until a few additional rounds have been played in AFL Season 2025 in real time, and then I'll report back on how those few weeks of games have affected Season 2024 in ... The Long Game.